It’s time to do a follow-up to my last Golden Bottom article. We are coming down to the wire and the action on Monday after the Swiss referendum should tell us whether gold has already formed a final bear market low, or whether we have one more drop in this intermediate cycle to the $1050 level before the final bottom.
If the vote is a yes then I suspect gold will reverse all of Friday’s losses and immediately head back up confirming that we got the final bear market bottom in early November.
Egypt’s military dictatorship holds absolute power. Has no legitimacy whatever.
Rules by decree. Controls the media. Ignores fundamental international laws, norms and standards. Its own constitutional law.
Prohibits dissent. Tolerates no opposition. Killed at least 3,000 Muslim Brotherhood members. Imprisoned tens of thousands more. Brutally tortures many.
Rachel Gearhart writes: The Federal Reserve may be looking to make its first round of interest rate increases since 2006 in mid-2015, but that doesn’t mean you should panic.
According to Loomis, Sayles & Co. Senior Equity Strategist Richard Skaggs, "A rate hike would not present a material obstacle" to stock gains in the next year to year and a half.
This morning the final votes were cast on the Swiss Gold Initiative (most votes were submitted via post). As we speak the final votes are still being counted however we already know: The initiative has been rejected!
The majority of votes of most individual cantons (some cantons’ votes are yet to be released) were against the initiative. As Switzerland has a federalist structure, this by itself already means that the initiative has been rejected.
Public votes are still not final, but indications show that about 25% of the population voted for the initiative.
Tonight I would like to update a few oil charts I posted several weeks ago when oil was breaking out of that multi year five point triangle reversal pattern.
Editor’s Note: See the links below to follow the evolution of this move in the Friday Night Energy Series.
Before we look at the bigger picture I want to show you a short term daily chart that had an interesting day. There are several things I like to look at when I see a stock that looks like it’s breaking out. First, it’s nice to see an increase in volume but sometimes it happens a day or to later. Secondly, it’s always nice to see a gap where you were expecting a breakout. That gives you a little more confidence when your anticipating a breakout and it happens right where it should. The third thing I like to look for is a long bar that covers a lot of ground. It tells us that, in oils case, there were no more bulls left to defend the support zone, so they retreat en mass looking for the next support zone to try and defend. In a bear market all the bulls can do is put up some minor support as the big trend is down and they’ll be overrun again in due time by the bears. You can clearly see this on the short term daily chart for oil below.
Investors and traders around the world continually search to find or increase their edge in the financial markets to boost profits. The next few months are going to be critical for investors because the number seven is now in play for the stock market.
What does this mean?
In magical lore seven is a magical number., While all numbers are ascribed certain properties and energies, seven is a number of power, a lucky number, a number of psychic and mystical powers, of secrecy and the search for truth.
Although they are still among the top ten in total gold holdings, Switzerland has been one of the largest sellers of gold among official entities since 1993.
It is no surprise then that the people of Switzerland have taken to a referendum to provide their opinions on this to the Swiss National Bank.
Nemo debet esse judex in propria causa.
Earmarked gold at the Federal Reserve dropped 42 tonnes for the month of October as foreign countries repatriate their gold.
Despite these declines the Fed’s earmarked holdings are quite substantial to say the least.
One has to wonder why the German people are not able to get back their gold for seven years.
The Dow’s parabolic move higher has continued with gusto throughout November. So what’s next? Well, I think Santa is coming to the party with a Christmas rally that will be the last hurrah for this bull market that began in 2009.
Let’s begin the analysis with the weekly chart.
US Dollar Index
The US dollar has surged in recent months breaking some obvious resistance levels. This has brought out many calls for an even bigger move up. While this is possible, I suspect a big fake out move is in play. Let’s investigate.
Firstly, let’s begin with the yearly chart of the US dollar index to help put things in perspective.
The holiday shortened week started off at SPX 2068 on Monday. After a rise to SPX 2074 by Tuesday the market dipped to 2065. Then after rise to new highs at SPX 2076 on Friday, this was followed by another dip to 2065. The total range for the week was an incredibly small 0.5%. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.15%, the NDX/NAZ gained 1.85%, and the DJ World index gained 0.10%. Despite the small rise, this was the sixth weekly gain in a row. On the economic front reports came in biased to the negative side. On the uptick: Q3 GDP, personal income/spending, the PCE, and durable goods orders. On the downtick: consumer confidence/sentiment, Case-Shiller, the Chicago PMI, pending/new home sales, the WLEI, and weekly jobless claims increased. Next week we get the FED’s beige book, the monthly Payrolls report, the ISMs, and plenty more.
Few, if any, of the correct questions were asked in the grand jury hearing to decide whether policeman Darren Wilson would be indicted for killing Michael Brown.
The most important unexamined question is whether police are trained to use force immediately as a first resort before they assess a situation or determine if they are at the correct address. Are the police trained that the lives of police officers are so much more valuable than the lives of possible suspects, or a houseful of people into whose residence a heavily armed SWAT team enters, that police officers must not accept the risk of judicious behavior when encountering citizens? If this is the case as all evidence indicates that it is, then the police when they gratuitously murder members of the public are merely doing what they have been trained to do. As police are trained to use violence as a first resort, the police cannot be held accountable when they do.
Eric Margolis writes: To no surprise, nuclear talks between Iran and major world powers have become stalemated.
Iran will not sink “to its knees” to win a nuclear deal with the great powers, said its leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, after the failure of six months of talks in Vienna.
However, the talks will continue until at least next March. Pity the poor negotiators: besides being excruciatingly boring, dealing with the tough, savvy Iranians is like pulling teeth. The only nationality I ever saw get the better of Iranians in negotiations were Armenians.
After painstaking growth, complaints of padded figures, and fears of underemployment among those lucky enough to have jobs, America finally sees its national unemployment rates in the 5.2-5.5% range. At this level, the Federal Reserve considers the market to represent full employment, with very nearly all of those actively desiring employment working or reasonably able to find work. An added bonus for government forecasters is that this rate of improvement is in keeping with their predictions, but comes a full quarter early.
SPXA50R measures the stocks above the 50 day Moving Average which gives perfect timing of Market Tops and Bottoms.
The Macd line cross is the Alert, Followed by %B below 0.5 and Slow Sto below 80 has proven to be Sell Signals
Behind the pink Histogram primary chart, you can see the SPX down and the Vix at the bottom right turning Up.
While the Shakespearean reference, from As You Like It, compares the world to the seven
ages of man, it can also be applied to the way in which the Rothschild formula for gaining
control of a nation’s money supply ultimately leads to that nation’s total subjugation to the
elites. It is the elite rent seeking who control the world, and that will not change in the
lifetime of anyone reading this, perhaps even for several successive generations to follow.
“Rent seeking” is defined as those who spend wealth on influencing a nation’s government
in order to increase one’s wealth without creating new wealth. Think of it more as a
transfer of resources from any faction in favor of gaining control of those resources to
those who have the power to influence. It is an inherently unfair redistribution mostly
accomplished by manipulating disadvantageous competition, abetted by those who are
in a position to bring about such change. Rent seeking through lobbying efforts is an
easy example. The fascist corporate model in the US today, like Monsanto and its
mandated use of GMOs is another, almost always at the expense of everyone else.
Looking back to 2007 (seven years ago) we have seen the price of crude oil perform incredible price swings. No matter the time frame in which we observe price when an extreme price spike takes place due to news/event, statistics show that half if not all the event driven price spike will eventually be negated in the future.
It was a sure thing. With the Fed cutting back its massive QE bond-buying program this year bonds would plunge. Instead, they began rallying sharply in January, precisely when the Fed began tapering back QE.
It seems that economists expecting bonds to plunge failed to anticipate that foreign demand for U.S. treasury bonds would make up for the slowing of Fed bond buying.
Thinking plummeting oil prices are good for the economy is a mistake. They instead, as I said only yesterday in The Price Of Oil Exposes The True State Of The Economy, point out how bad the global economy is doing. QE has been able to inflate stock prices way beyond anything remotely looking fundamental, but energy prices have now deflated instead of stocks. Something had to give at some point. Turns out, central banks weren’t able to inflate oil prices on top of everything else. Stocks and bonds are much easier to artificially inflate than commodities are.