This analysis continues from Part 1 (UK General Election 2015 – Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others) that forecast the probable seats for the UK’s minor parties. This article (Part 2) concludes by forecasting the probable seats for the Labour and Conservative parties, and which is most likely to form the next government.
UK Political Party Funding Suggests Another ConLib General Election Outcome 2015
A recently published report by the Electoral Commission details fund raising by all of the major political parties for 2014, and allowing for expectations for a similar trend into the May 2015 general election means that significant differences in the funding of major parties election campaigns could result in a significant impact in this years too close to call probable hung parliament election result.
Britain’s political parties are all ramping their frenzy of activity in the run up to the May 7th General Election with a string of bribes being announced virtually every other day as the parties fire their free money missiles at targeted potential voters, such as the Tories bribing pensioners with a interest rate busting 4% NS&I £15k bond at a subsidised cost to the tax payer of at least £1.2 billion. Whilst the opposition Labour party firing back by aiming at student voters with the announcement of a £10 billion bribe to cut tuition fees for £9k to £6k per year AND to bung students an extra £400 annual allowance, a tuition fees promise that Labour will likely break just as they had broken their 1997 promise NOT to introduce tuition fees in the first place which Labour subsequently did.
In 2006-2007 I called for a recession. We got a big one. I called for another one in 2011, as did the ECRI. That recession never happened.
50% is not a very good recession predicting track record except in comparison to consensus economic opinions that have never once in history predicted a recession. Consensus opinion is batting a perfect 0.00%
The week started off at SPX 2110. Then after dipping to SPX 2103 Monday morning the market rallied to new highs at 2120 by Wednesday. After that it spent the next two days within that range. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.1%, the NDX/NAZ were mixed, and the DJ World index was +0.3%. On the economic front negative reports continued to outpace positive ones. On the uptick: Case-Shiller, durable goods, the FHFA, consumer sentiment, and pending homes sales. On the downtick: existing home sales, consumer confidence, the CPI, the Chicago PMI, Q2 GDP, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims rose. Next week’s reports are highlighted by monthly Payrolls, the FED’s beige book and the PCE.
“At this juncture, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained.” – Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, Congressional testimony, March, 2007
“Capitalism without financial failure is not capitalism at all, but a kind of socialism for the rich.” – James Grant, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer
The Federal Reserve issued their fourth quarter Report on Household Debt and Credit last week to the sounds of silence in the mainstream media. There were minor press releases issued by the “professional” financial journalists regurgitating the Federal Reserve’s storyline. Actual analysis, connecting the dots, describing how the massive issuance of student loan and auto loan debt has produced a fake economic recovery, and how the accelerating default rates in auto loans and student loans will produce the next subprime debt implosion, were nowhere to be seen on , Bloomberg, the WSJ, or any other status quo propaganda media outlet. Their job is not to analyze or seek truth. Their job is to keep their government patrons and Wall Street advertisers happy, while keeping the masses sedated, misinformed, and pliable.
In an article about NATO exercises in Estonia, just 300 yards from the Russian border, Daniel McAdams at the Ron Paul Institute makes a point that I want to use to make a much broader point. Not the provide answers, though, just to provide questions. McAdams quotes the Guardian review of a book by George Sakwa:
Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. – Albert Einstein.
From a perspective of logic, the world makes less and less sense as the elites relentlessly,
and successfully pursue their one world government. There has been an increased
awareness of the Rothschilds, elites, bankers, those who control all money, all Western
governments, and we are not so sure about the rest of the world. Unfortunately, the
greater awareness has done nothing to alter the inevitable course of dominance of the
masses by the few. The New World Order [NWO] remains on schedule, based on results.
Most of the major-index charts, especially the Nasdaq and S&P 500, hit the top of their trend lines and are now struggling. We’ve shown you these charts and how difficult it can be here for the markets to continue higher with force. It would be best if we pulled back some first, although markets know how to fool the masses. Would it shock me if we saw another move higher first, because that’s least expected? Not at all. Maybe one more move towards Nasdaq 5K and then down hard. Maybe not. There really is no way to know.
There is an obsession in the marketplace over the date when the Fed will once again begin to raise rates. As if another 25 basis points is going to change the economics on tens of trillions of dollars of investments. But as we reflect on the issue more deeply, it becomes obvious that a minor bump in the fed funds rate will indeed change a great deal of economics all over the world. No, it won’t do much to the cap rate on your latest real estate purchase, but it is likely to greatly affect the pricing of the currency and commodity markets. And those markets will affect corporate profits, which will affect the stock market. It’s all connected.
The miners will typically lead Gold at major turning points. We say typically because the trend in the relationship is hardly exact or precise. There can be times when the miners are simply showing their beta (not leading) and there can be times when the miners are leading but their leadership suddenly halts or reverses. The miners peaked five months before Gold and are now one month from the 4-year anniversary of their market. The time seems ripe for the miners to lead Gold into the next bull market.
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: Amazon, Apple, Cisco, Barnes & Noble, and hundreds of other companies are at fresh 52-week highs, leading many investors to question the wisdom of putting more money to work.
Yet that’s exactly what you should be doing.
I know it seems counter-intuitive – especially if you believe in buy low and sell high like I do – but here’s the thing…
Investors are complacent, even confident, regarding the prospects for 2015. That is in spite of the market being at valuation levels higher than all but one previous market peak of the last 100 years, while the economy appears to be slowing, corporate earnings growth is slowing, and the bull market has lasted an unusual length of time without a correction. In fact, the high level of investor optimism and confidence is itself a concern.
SPX appears to be working on Micro Wave v of (c). The ideal target is 2114.27, but the trendline is at 2113.20. The maximum that it may rise in this scenario is 2115.47. This morning’s suggestion of 2014.00-2015.00 may have been a bit generous.
This may be a good spot to add another layer of aggressive short positions in equities. No confirms yet, but that may change rather quickly.
Enjoy an excerpt from “The State of the Global Markets 2015 Edition,” a comprehensive report by Elliott Wave International
Editor’s note: This article is excerpted from “The State of the Global Markets 2015 Edition,” a comprehensive report by Elliott Wave International, the world’s largest independent market-forecasting firm (data through December 2014). You can download the full, 53-page report here — 100% free.