Bitcoin Price Down Move Still in the Cards

In short: speculative short positions, stop-loss at 283, take-profit at $153.
The development of Bitcoin shares traits with the development of the financial system as we know it. The problems which marred some Bitcoin exchanges seem similar to the ones which contributed to the introduction of deposit insurance. In a way, Bitcoin exemplifies both the troubles that the financial system encountered in the past but also the opportunities it offered. We actually saw an interesting piece on the Quartz website drawing parallels between the organization of stock trading and the Bitcoin system:

VIX shorts scream bloody murder as stops are run, ETF markets halted

ZeroHedge reports that all S&P Sector ETs and VIX ETFs are halted.
One of the most crowded trades today are the VIX shorts. One way to buy VIX shares en masse is to run all the stops on the shorts, effectively making these shares available for sale. There is no control of the price at which these shares are sold when the algos are turned loose, causing massive losses among those shorts and an opportunity for some large player to load up (long) on these shares. This may not be allowed if the regulators are on the ball, as the transactions may be cancelled. But the regulators may have a hard time trying to figure out what to do, since the computer outage occurred on such a large range of ETFs.

No Body Understands Debt – Living in a Free-Lunch World

“Everyone is a prisoner of his own experiences. No one can eliminate prejudices – just recognize them.”
– Edward R. Murrow, US broadcast journalist & newscaster (1908 – 1965), television broadcast, December 31, 1955
“High debt levels, whether in the public or private sector, have historically placed a drag on growth and raised the risk of financial crises that spark deep economic recessions.” – The McKinsey Institute, “Debt and (not much) Deleveraging”

US Dollar Forecast

With no break of the 34-dma and a cycle low due this week it is beginning to look like the bulk of the expected correction is behind us and DXY will soon begin what is expected to be the last leg of its rally prior to this September.
April looks bullish for the dollar with short-term cycles pointing to highs near both Apr. 15 and Apr. 30.

Will Gold Win Out Against the US Dollar?

By Louis James It is an essential impossibility to solve problems created by excess debt and artificial liquidity with more of the same. That’s our credo here at Casey Research, and the reason why we believe the gold price will turn around and not only go higher, but much, much higher.
While fellow investors around the world may not agree with gold-loving contrarians like us, they are buyers: gold is up in euros and almost everything else, except the dollar.

U.S. Isolated in Opposition to Chinese Bank

Over the past few decades while the economic power of the Chinese has grown exponentially, many observers have been surprised by the relative willingness of China to operate within the financial and economic framework established by the dominant Western order. But it should now be blatantly clear that Beijing prefers to act slowly, deliberately and quietly to advance its agenda. This is the case with the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), a Chinese-led lending institution which could emerge as an international rival to the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Such an institution could support Beijing’s political interests by controlling the flow of infrastructure financing that is vital for developing economies. As we all know, money can often buy loyalty.

SPX Losing Supports

Good Morning!
SPX appears to be challenging the hourly mid-Cycle support at 2077.73 in the Premarket this morning.
ZeroHedge writes, “Following yesterday’s proof-positive that "everything is awesome," today (and overnight) we find, everything is not so awesome. Following the unleashing of The Warsh on , markets are starting to turmoil. Crude has erased all its late-day ramp and then some dropping back to a low $47 handle. German Bund yields just hit a new record low (2Y at -25.7bps!). US equity markets have erased all of yesterday’s post-open gains, and US Treasury yields are dumping as the Euro surges…”

Stock Markets Toddling Towards the Non-Farm Payrolls Boogie Woogie

Another glorious day in the Pax Americana dominated by grift, spin, weak economic results, and ‘technical trade.’

In case you were wondering who might benefit from higher short term interest rates, the first chart below is an interest rate sensitivity study from JP Morgan. It is not certainly a complete picture, but it is indicative of their positioning perhaps.

Middle East Balance of Power Matures

George Friedman writes: Last week, a coalition of predominantly Sunni Arab countries, primarily from the Arabian Peninsula and organized by Saudi Arabia, launched airstrikes in Yemen that have continued into this week. The airstrikes target Yemeni al-Houthis, a Shiite sect supported by Iran, and their Sunni partners, which include the majority of military forces loyal to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh. What made the strikes particularly interesting was what was lacking: U.S. aircraft. Although the United States provided intelligence and other support, it was a coalition of Arab states that launched the extended air campaign against the al-Houthis.

Ed Miliband Debate Election 2015 Analysis – Labour Spending, Debt and Economic Collapse

David Cameron having chickened out of a head to head debate with Ed Milliband left the Labour leader to on his own face the brought out of retirement Jeremy Paxman as the second debate of the night following his earlier 20 minute grilling of David Cameron. Jeremy Paxman started hard by focusing on the failures of the last Labour government in terms of immigration, debt, spending, economic collapse and the threat of a Labour-SNP alliance, but Jeremy relented towards the end of the debate to give Ed Milliband an markedly easier ride than the Prime Minister had received as the following comprehensive video of the debate and analysis illustrates.

Secret to Finding the Next Goldcorp Gold Stock

Chen Lin, author of the popular stock newsletter What Is Chen Buying? What Is Chen Selling?, knows the smart time to look for the next big gold company is when everyone else has left the sector. With China making moves to invest trillions in commodity-hungry infrastructure, Lin is traveling the world looking for the companies with the right projects in the right place making all the right moves. In this interview with The Gold Report, he shares some of the insights from his recent travels and discusses three companies with potential to be the next Goldcorp.

Why are Interest Rates So Low? Ben Bernanke, Confused as Ever, Starts His Own Blog to Prove It

Ben Bernanke just started his own blog at the Brookings Institute. His first post, from today, Inaugurating a New Blog is the announcement.
Let’s dive into Bernanke’s second post of the day: Why are Interest Rates So Low?
Bernanke: Low interest rates are not a short-term aberration, but part of a long-term trend. As the figure below shows, ten-year government bond yields in the United States were relatively low in the 1960s, rose to a peak above 15 percent in 1981, and have been declining ever since. That pattern is partly explained by the rise and fall of inflation, also shown in the figure.

Don’t Celebrate the U.S. Housing Market Recovery Yet

Shah Gilani writes: When I moved to Sarasota, Fla., in 1999, I was invited by a prominent local to an “un-wedding wedding” to make new friends in town. I accepted the invitation and, not wanting to display my ignorance, avoided asking the burning question: “What’s an un-wedding wedding?”
Inevitably, I found out what an un-wedding wedding is. It’s a full-blown wedding, only the host isn’t actually getting married. He or she wants to get married but isn’t – and goes through the motions anyway.

SPX Reaches 61.8% Retracement

SPX reached a high of 2088.25, just 9 ticks beneath the 61.8% retracement level and 65 ticks from the point at which Wave v equals Wave I (2088.80). It appears to be about to cross beneath Intermediate-term support/resistance at 2085.85. The likelihood of the retracement being complete is very high. No buy signal was given, so the only thing I might add is to add to any short positions at this time. This retracement was stronger than expected, but considering the end of the quarter is almost here, it makes sense that this rally could be engineered for large investors to take profits at the expense of retail investors.

A Middle East Nuclear Holocaust

Foundations and corporations do not support truth-tellers. American foundations underwrite war and US imperialism. Foundations support subversion of countries that are not Washington’s puppet states. Your website has no foundation support, no corporate support; it only has your support.
I have been around for a long time and have experienced more than most. The current situation in my experience is the most dangerous time of all for humanity.

Do What the Stock Market Bears Do… Not What They Say

Alexander Green writes: Here’s a thought experiment for you.
Imagine you’re a business owner who is attending an investment conference. A smart, articulate and extremely bearish stock market analyst takes the podium and warns of impending economic doom.
He marshals an impressive array of scary facts. He points to past predictions that have come to pass. And he claims the economy and stock market will soon collapse.

Where the U.S. Economy Is Heading According to Buffett

Marc Lichtenfeld writes: Many investors like to follow the “smart money.” And it doesn’t get much smarter than Warren Buffett. So it’s worth examining what stocks Buffett is buying and selling, not just for individual names, but to gauge his overall comfort with the market.
In the quarter ending in December, Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK) sold all of its shares in Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP). It also reduced its holdings in National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV) by about 18%. A lot of Buffett watchers have interpreted his reduced holdings in energy as bad news for the industry.