Last time I wrote, the market looked toppy and I was anticipating a 2.5 week low Tuesday (which used to be the dominant 5 week lo). We rallied Wednesday after the expected selling then sold off the rest of the week. I had said that I expected a June 1 top, but after careful study realized that the top would be June 3 instead.
The Mercury Retrograde mid-point low is due 12 calendar days after the initial retrograde point May 18-19, which points to May 30/31 for the low. That means the low will be on June 1 because May 30/31 falls on a weekend. There is also an adjusted Gann 16 TD low due Monday too. I expect initial buying (9/10 pts) on a possible gap up followed by selling down to about SPX 2085/86.
We have a conflict in time, this weekend, so we are presenting charts only, since they provide the best information about what the market is doing, especially when almost all fundamental data has not produced the positive results they appear to indicate.
The fiat Federal Reserve “dollar” remains the antithesis of gold, since the elite’s central bankers do all they can to discredit the metal that makes a lie out of all the fiats issued and without taking responsibility for its ultimate destructive outcome. After all, the sole objective of the elites is to steal as much wealth from the masses as possible during their quest for a New World Order, well on its way.
This is a letter From Greek PM Alexis Tsipras in today’s Le Monde. I have little to add, his eloquence needs few comments at this moment. One thing is certain: the negotiations will never be the same. And neither will Europe.
Michael E. Lewitt writes: Week after week, the news is filled with reports of law-breaking by institutions and individuals that hold positions of trust in society. Last week, FIFA, the body that rules the multi-billion dollar business of soccer, was hit by indictments of many of its senior officials who were charged with running a multi-year corruption scheme.
The week ended with former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Dennis Hastert – who for 8 years was the second in line to the presidency – being indicted for violating banking laws in connection with a scheme to pay hush money to a man with whom he had an illicit sexual relationship thirty years ago.
There is quite a bit of macroeconomic data coming out for the US next week. I have included the calendar below.
Among these will be the Non-Farm Payrolls number for May, which will be released on Friday.
Ryan W. McMaken writes: Brendan Nyhan at The New York Times seems to be under the impression that the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) has something to do with free trade. Nyhan writes that the TPP
is the latest step in a decades-long trend toward liberalizing trade — a somewhat mysterious development given that many Americans are skeptical of freer trade.
A student sued her college because she failed a nursing class. Twice.
She said she suffered psychological problems. Those problems included anxiety, depression, and poor concentration skills.
The college had agreed to allow her to retake the final examination last summer.
Another choppy week, but biased to the downside. The market started the holiday shortened week at SPX 2126. After a gap down opening on Tuesday the market dropped to SPX 2099. It rallied right back on Wednesday to close the gap, hitting SPX 2126. Then it worked its way lower for the rest of the week to close at SPX 2107. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 1.05%, the NDX/NAZ lost 0.40%, and the DJ World index lost 1.4%. On the economic front it was another mixed week. On the uptick: new/pending home sales, consumer confidence/sentiment, and the FHFA housing index. On the downtick: durable goods orders, Q1 GDP, the Chicago PMI, the WLEI, and weekly jobless claims increased. Next week’s highlights are Payrolls, the FED’s Beige book, ISM and the PCE.
US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter is willing to risk a war with China in order to defend “freedom of navigation” in the South China Sea. Speaking in Honolulu, Hawaii on Wednesday, Carter issued his “most forceful” warning yet, demanding “an immediate and lasting halt to land reclamation” by China in the disputed Spratly Islands.
Carter said: “There should be no mistake: The United States will fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows, as we do all around the world.” He also added that the United States intended to remain “the principal security power in the Asia-Pacific for decades to come.”
By Jared Dillian This piece requires some knowledge of option pricing, so I’m going to bring everyone up to speed.
This is the P&L diagram of a long call option:
There are two different worlds to write about each and every day with regards to the market. There’s the real world and Disneyland. In this particular case the real world is the GDP that was reported in the red this morning. The number was anticipated to be negative, so no big shock when that became a reality. The market futures dropped a bit, but really nothing from nothing. The market anticipated a bad number due to the excuse of bad weather across the country during Q1. I think that’s a terrible excuse but why not, let the market use it as an excuse simply because it doesn’t want to fall very much. Now we fast forward to the present. We wait on the Chicago PMI to see if business is indeed picking up. The number was well below expectations showing recession during April. No more weather excuses Mr. Market. Here’s where Disneyland comes in. Who cares! The market fell a bit for a while, but decided excuses were still the way to approach what’s happening. Disneyland allowed the markets to recover off the lows. No big fall that would cause a little bit of technical damage.
I looked over the weekly Petroleum Inventory Report put out by the EIA today, and the biggest takeaway by far was that U.S. oil production set a new modern era high at 9.566 Million Barrels per day. The last high in U.S. production occurred in March, and it appeared that the U.S. production numbers were getting slightly weaker, and maybe the top in U.S. production was in. But this past week Production really ramped back up with a blowout number, and if it wasn`t for a week in which imports were unusually low for the week, there would have been another huge build in Oil Inventories for the week.
The slowdown of worldwide trade and GDP may affect different currencies in distinct ways. It is well time that we briefly analyze the relationship between the yellow metal and other currencies than the U.S. dollar. It is very important issue, since many non-American investors measure gold in their local currencies.
Gold has been frustrating for bulls and bears since its crash in Q2 2013. In the two years since it has traded in a wide range, frustrating traders and investors. The net result has been nothing but the passing of time. Until Gold breaks above $1300 or breaks below $1150, we will remain in waiting mode. Personally, I believe Gold is far more likely to break lower in the weeks and months ahead. In any case, we are still waiting.
By Brian Hunt and Ben Morris: They’re not all household names like Warren Buffett…
But they’re superstars in the money-management business… And you can learn a lot by looking at how they’re investing.
One of the main goals in our DailyWealth Trader service is to pass along insights, strategies, and actionable ideas from top money managers. These elite investors have decades of experience, high-level contacts, huge research budgets, and long track records of success.
The great endeavor of investing can be distilled down into four simple words, buy low sell high. They are so basic, so resoundingly clear, that even a child can understand this principle. Yet still the great majority of investors never achieve significant success. Even while full-well knowing the core idea of investing, they end up buying high and selling low. That treacherous struggle of investing must be overcome.
It’s funny, as life is full of simple ideas that are incredibly challenging to put into practice. Investing is certainly not unique in this regard. Americans’ expanding waistlines are a great example. The only way to lean up is some combination of eating less and exercising more. We all know this basic truth, we all know what we ought to be doing on both fronts, yet it’s still really hard to execute. Emotions are the reason.
Andrew Syrios writes: Andrew Syrios writes: ity to refer to Honduras as a “modern day libertarian dystopia.” As the author states, “Eliminate all taxes, privatize everything, load a country up with guns and oppose all public expenditures, you end up with Honduras.” A country where “the police ride around in pickup trucks with machine guns, but they aren’t there to protect most people. … For individual protection there’s an army of private, armed security guards.”
With the 3rd US Q1 GDP print coming in at -0.7% (-3% if not for inventories), perhaps the media spotlights – and lively imagination – can move away from Greece for a few weeks. The US has enough problems of its own, it would seem. For one thing, its Q1 GDP is now worse than Greece’s. Of course its debt is also much higher, just not to the IMF and ECB. But let’s leave that one be for the moment. Though a bit of perspective works miracles at times.
In short: short speculative positions, $stop-loss at $247, take-profit at $153.
Barry Silbert, a Bitcoin investor, might think that companies in the like of Western Union and MoneyGram will be devastated by Bitcoin, we read on the Entrepreneur website:
The near-demise of Kodak is a famous parable in business circles, illustrating the need for deeply-entrenched organizations to adapt in the face of evolving technology.
– Debt load of many countries is an economic risk
– Ageing populations in developed world to put pressure on economies
– Goldman proposes “creative” social policy to deal with looming crisis
– Entire debt-based monetary system needs reform