Matthew Carr writes: We just experienced another “Black Friday”…
Not in the U.S. markets, but across the Pacific in China.
You want to talk about overvalued? Overheated? The Chinese stock markets were on a tear earlier this year. The Shanghai Composite was up more than 100% at the start of June… and most of that was accomplished between the end of March and the beginning of June.
DXY gained 1.46% last week to close at 95.65 back above its 34-dma as well as its mid-June reaction high (a higher high) giving hope to the bulls that the final rally is upon us. Despite the bearish seasonality of July, cycles indicate that the Dollar is set for one “last hurrah” prior to a “summer swoon” a month from now.
In short: no speculative positions.
Yesterday, we wrote how Bitcoin doesn’t necessarily have to be linked to the Greek situation. Yes, the recent turmoil has coincided with capital controls in Greece but this might not be a stable situation contrary to what one might think only looking at the price action. Today, on the Fortune website we read:
The Syriza government that like a spoilt child keeps throwing its toys out of the euro-zone pram has been pushing Greece towards economic and financial collapse since its January election win, as Syriza continues to blackmail the euro-zone that if Greece does not get its way then they will take the euro-zone down with them, prompting markets to discount the potential contagion effect of the Greece debt default, bank run saga being replicated amongst other larger Euro-zone member states that has prompted stock markets to slide across europe and the wider world as illustrated by yesterdays Dow and FTSE plunges that have galvanised the bears into action to once more proclaim the stocks bull market end is nigh.
– Demand for physical gold from Europeans surges
– Greek ATMs limit withdrawals to €60 per day
– Greeks panic buy food, fuel and medicine
– European elites threaten Greece with expulsion
– Gold not subject to capital controls or “bail-ins”
Tom Gentile writes: A lot of Baby Boomers are now running smack dab into their retirement.
An aging population coupled with the rising cost of healthcare and prescription drugs is a potent brew for profiting in the healthcare sector.
And it’s no wonder that this company is in the spotlight with long-term analysts.
Concerned about a tumbling equity market, PBOC moved to cut both interest rates and the reserve requirement ratio for banks over the weekend. However, increasingly wary of a market bubble in China, investors still sent Shanghai Composite spiraling down another 3.3% on Monday after the dramatic 7.4% plunge last Friday despite the support from the central bank.
George Friedman writes: The Greek situation — having perhaps outlived the term "crisis," now that it has taken so long to unfold — appears to have finally reached its terminal point. This is, of course, an illusion: It has been at its terminal point for a long time.
The terminal point is the juncture where neither the Greeks nor the Germans can make any more concessions. In Greece itself, the terminal point is long past. Unemployment is at 26 percent, and more than 50 percent of youths under 25 are unemployed. Slashed wages, particularly in the state sector, affecting professions including physicians and engineers, have led to massive underemployment. Meanwhile, most new economic activity is occurring in the untaxable illegal markets. The Greeks owe money to EU institutions and the International Monetary Fund, all of which acquired bad Greek debts from banks that initially lent funds to Greece in order to stabilize its banking sector. No one ever really thought the Greeks could pay back these loans.
After a strong end of last year for Chinese markets, there was a bit of a reversal in the first quarter of 2015; and it has caught the attention of Chinese monetary policy makers. In an effort to spur economic growth, the People’s Bank of China has made big changes to monetary policy in the country. Today, we’ll talk about what those changes are and how they’re likely to help, as well as what we can expect to see from China’s markets moving forward. So, let’s get right to it.
The GDXJ is at an important inflection point right here and now. As you can see it’s sitting right on the neckline of a small H&S top that has formed at the fourth reversal point on the potential bearish falling wedge. A break of the neckline will almost assure a move down to the bottom blue rail of the falling wedge at a minimum.
Amidst all the talk about "Grexit" (are the rest of the readers as sick of hearing about this as I am at this point?), one thing being overlooked, especially by those who keep calling for some sort of rip roaring surge higher in gold and silver, is the fact that crude oil is weakening.
In short, with many looking at the situation in Greece as contributing to a hit on economic growth, and with the fact that China is struggling, crude oil is moving lower as traders are concerned over a SLOWDOWN IN DEMAND.
The news over the weekend was bad regarding any possibility of a settlement with Greece, thus the markets in the Euro zone were getting hammered when trading opened up last night. We followed along as usual, and, as usual, we weren’t as bad as they were, which is totally understandable, but we were down hard enough to make folks feel that nasty feeling in the pit of their stomachs, especially those overtrading in a risky environment. I had warned repeatedly last week that the risk was running higher and higher each day as we headed towards the deadline of June 30. That was the date when Greece had promised to bundle all of their payments in to one large payment. They made it clear that wasn’t going to happen and that’s when the negotiations began. Unfortunately they didn’t go well and this is the result. We were lucky.
A true contrarian knows that when everyone says an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve would kill stocks, that is the best time to double down on junior mining names. In this interview with The Gold Report, Gold Stock Trades author Jeb Handwerger shares the names of the companies he thinks could do well through the drill bit or by acquisition regardless of when the inevitable turnaround comes.
The Gold Report: Common wisdom says that when the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates later this year, it will prove negative for gold. Do you agree?
Marc Faber, Editor of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, spoke with Bloomberg Television’s Stephanie Ruhle, Joe Weisenthal and Scarlet Fu about the U.S. economy, financial markets and the Greek debt crisis.
Describing the situation in Greece, Faber said: “My sense is that they will come to some kind of an agreement in the last minute. But I don’t think that’s any positive because Greece is basically bankrupt. The debt should be written down by 50 percent or more. However, I have this to say. I don’t believe that stocks are going down because of Greece. I believe that the market has been weakening internally for a long time.”
“If this were a marriage, the lawyers would be circling.” – The Economist, My Big Fat Greek Divorce, 6/20/2015
Greece is again all the buzz in the media and on the commentary circuit. If you’re like me, you are suffering terminal Greece fatigue. You just want Greece and its creditors to “do something already” rather than continually coming to the end of every week with no resolution, amid finger-pointing and dire warnings from all sides about the End of All Things Europe – maybe even the world.
Since the beginning of April, we have seen some relatively strong upside moves in the British Pound (GBP). For many, these moves were surprising, given the massive declines that were posted by the currency in 2014. But all of us with experience in the financial markets know that no single trend can last forever, no matter how strong the technical or fundamental basis for the initial reasoning. This turned out to be the case for the GBP over the last few weeks and we have now seen the GBP/USD overcome important psychological levels just above the 1.5750 mark.
In the latest weekly production data from the EIA, on the back of recent March revisions, the U.S. managed to post a 76,000 barrel per day increase in the lower 48. Production from Alaska fell by 61,000 barrels per day, putting overall U.S. output 15,000 barrels per day higher for the week ending June 12 compared to the previous week.
This comes at a time when multimillion barrel draws have become the norm. It is important to note that lower 48 production is estimated based on an EIA black box model, while Alaska is virtually real time data. That suggests that the weekly supply estimates are hugely overestimated.
– Persistent low rates leave central banks with no ammunition to fight next crisis
– BIS says short-sighted central banks and governments contributed to current weaknesses
– Lack of policy options have forced some central banks to stretch “boundaries of the unthinkable”
– Bust in developed economies the main risk facing global economy
– Greece prepares to default
– China markets routed overnight
– Gold will be last man standing when currencies collapse
Shah Gilani writes: Plenty of analysts, market-watchers, and thought leaders are excited about Uber, Airbnb, and the advent of the so-called “sharing economy.”
Here’s the thing: The sharing economy isn’t for everybody.
Why not? Because, as we learned in the sandbox, not everyone wants to share.
Syriza government betrays Europe and the Greek people says angry EU President Juncker, by Syriza lying to its people on the truth of Greece’s proposed bailout conditions and that he has no trust left in Tsipras. Juncker in blunt language made it clear that a NO vote on the 5th July referendum (that I don’t think will actually be held) would mean that Greece will be kicked out of the euro-zone.
“’No’ would mean, regardless of the final question, that Greece is saying no to Europe,”