America is run by a criminal aristocracy – a one-party system with two wings, serving monied interests exclusively at the expense of beneficial social change.
Their agenda no matter who’s president or heading key congressional committees features:
•an obsession with national security at a time America’s only enemies are ones it invents;
The massive Quantitative Easing (QE) abuse by the USFed and steeped lies are centered on its volume, which in reality is an order of magnitude higher than admitted. The recent usage of certain REPO windows has been effective to disguise huge volume of bond purchases. The entire bond system is irreparably corrupted. The REPO window hides QE extras with naked bond shorting linked to a $1 trillion extravaganza that receives almost no publicity. While the public, and even more financial market participants, focus on the Dow Jones stock index, the Treasury Bond yield, the crude oil price, and very little else, they overlook the Reverse REPO window and the related Failures to Deliver data for USTreasury Bonds. The two work like a hand and glove.
For the past 15 – 40 years, debt and prices in most markets have moved upward, broadly speaking, in exponential trends. See the following log-scale graphs.
US T-Bonds: T-Bonds have been rallying in their bull market since the early 1980’s. Will they continue, correct, or crash? Doug Noland says it is “The Beginning of the Great Global Unwind.” See chart.
The SPX Premarket is down .8% as I write to 1972.00. The top of the retracement was at 11:30 am on Friday, giving us approximately 4 more days of potential decline.
As the Fed nears its proposed first rate hike in nine years the stock market is becoming frantic. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down around 10% on the year, as markets digest the troubling reality that our central bank may be raising interest rates into an emerging worldwide deflationary collapse.
The Fed normally raises rates when inflation is becoming intractable and robust growth is sending long-term rates spiking. However, this proposed rate hike cycle is occurring within the context of anemic growth and deflationary forces that are causing long-term U.S. Treasury rates to fall.
Today’s Gold Prices: Bank Holiday in UK today
Friday’s Gold Prices: USD 1,125.50, EUR 998.23 and GBP 730.99 per ounce.
Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified
Our intraday outlook is neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Shah Gilani writes: Of all the scary things that happened last Monday when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 1,000 points, nothing was scarier than what happened with exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
They crashed and exacerbated the market sell-off. They’re not all a bad risk, and there are some we like to recommend that are quite safe – even essential – during a market reversal.
Perhaps Angela Merkel thought we didn’t yet know how full of it she is. Perhaps that’s why she said yesterday with regards to Europe’s refugee crisis that “Everything must move quickly,” only to call an EU meeting a full two weeks later. That announcement show one thing: Merkel doesn’t see this as a crisis. If she did, she would have called for such a meeting a long time ago, and not some point far into the future.
“All truth passed through three stages: First it is ridiculed. Second it is violently opposed. Third it is accepted as being self evident”. – Arthur Schopenhauer
Once the truth about silver value becomes evident, it will probably be time to move on.
For now, watching price action can be torture.
Last week ended with the cackling hens on and the spokesmodels on Bloomberg bloviating about the temporary pothole on the road to riches. They assured their few thousand remaining viewers the 11% plunge in the stock market was caused by China and the communist government’s direct intervention in their stock market, arrest of a brokerage CEO, and threat to prosecute sellers surely cured what ails their market. The Fed and their Plunge Protection Team co-conspirators reversed the free fall, manipulating derivatives and creating a short seller covering rally back to previous week levels. The moneyed interests are desperate to retain the appearance of normality and stability, as their debt saturated system teeters on the verge of collapse.
Sorry goldbugs, it is not the gold chart. There are a lot of opinions out there on the US Dollar. Many of them are bearish in the short medium and long term time frames.
So lets see what the Charts are whispering.
With all the volatility this week in markets around the world the US dollar made an interesting move. The long term daily chart below shows the five point rectangle, at the bottom left hand side of the chart, that launched the big breakout and impulse move higher in May of 2014. If you look at reversal point #5 with a question mark on it you’ll see the comment I made at the time which I noted, this could be a false breakout to the downside and we might see a big move in the opposite direction, which was up. Keep in mind the chart was much bigger back then and the false breakout also looked much bigger. As you can see that indeed was a false breakout to the downside which led to the impulse move up we found ourselves in until the US dollar topped out earlier this year and has been building out the next consolidation pattern.
Following Monday’s historic stock market downturn, many politicians and so-called economic experts rushed to the microphones to explain why the market crashed and to propose "solutions" to our economic woes. Not surprisingly, most of those commenting not only failed to give the right answers, they failed to ask the right questions.
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Bull Market?
Intermediate trend – SPX has started an intermediate correction (at least).
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
We are believed to be at an excellent juncture right now to short the broad stockmarket (or buy bear ETFs and Puts). As we know, we did just that before the dramatic plunge early last week, and are now “sitting pretty”. Now is the time to add to positions, or if you haven’t any and are looking for the right shorting opportunity, this is it.
What to know what would have happened if the SNP fanatics had succeeded in convincing the Scottish electorate into voting for independence?
Well the following video gives an idea of the path that not just Scotland would have been set upon but the whole of the UK as Scottish independence would have unleashed forces that would literally have torn the nation apart, something that the SNP fanatics continue to remain blind to today, this despite the fact of the oil price collapse of 2015 which alone would have collapsed the Scottish economy.
Gold looks to have made a short term high and now looks headed back down. Let’s revise the daily and monthly charts.
Matthew Carr writes: I was working from home that day.
My wife had just had surgery, and I was caring for her as she recovered. I was sitting in our main floor living room, answering emails. My wife was on the couch downstairs, watching TV.
All of a sudden, our dog Chloe came running into the room. She jumped up on the couch next to me and started licking my face. Seconds later, the house started shaking.
It will be interesting to see how gold moves in the latter half of this year.
As for the intraday movement, the impact of the London – New York on the gold trade is hard to miss.
If there was ever any doubt that the majority of buying by the hedge fund category in the gold market over the past 3-4 weeks has been of the nature of short covering, this week’s COT should put that theory to rest.
Since the third week of July, the hedge fund category alone has covered or lifted 40,000 short positions. That against the addition of only 16,000 or so new long positions over the same time span. By a better than 2:1 margin, hedge funds have been covering shorts, not instituting fresh purchases of gold.