European Central Bank President, Mario Draghi, has been trying to lower the value of the euro by promising to pursue inflation with a vengeance. His inflation rhetoric was stepped up during a speech he gave to Germany on November 20th of this year. In that speech Mr. Draghi vowed to "do what we must to raise inflation as quickly as possible."
Draghi’s efforts to crush the euro have somehow been taken by Wall Street as a great opportunity to sell gold. But there shouldn’t be a person alive having an IQ greater than a mentally challenged ameba that can rationalize why it is appropriate to sell gold simply because of Mario Draghi’s obsession with creating inflation and destroying the euro.
I decided to switch ideas, although I am happy to switch back should we see a solid break under 2019SPX, the lack of downside is supporting the market is most likely in wave 5 and not still in wave 4, initially I was looking for a decline to either 1900SPX for wave [C] of a triangle or even 1850SPX for wave [C] of a flat pattern to end wave 4 on the weekly charts. But the reluctance to break down a few weeks back is strongly suggesting it’s most likely in wave 5 and further more it could well be inside in wave  of 5 as shown.
Christmas is just around the corner and our annual festive splurging is starting to step up. But with households expected to spend an average of £614.96* on Christmas this year, many are wondering why they didn’t put more money aside for the festivities.
Although it may seem a little early to start thinking about Christmas 2016, the fact that many of the best savings deals are fixed for 12 months means that, if you start now, your savings account will mature just in time for next year’s spending spree (see table below).
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,140 and profit target at 1,990, S&P 500 index)
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
The interventionists will do anything to prevent Americans from seeing that their foreign policies are perpetuating terrorism and inspiring others to seek to harm us. The neocons know that when it is understood that blowback is real – that people seek to attack us not because we are good and free but because we bomb and occupy their countries – their stranglehold over foreign policy will begin to slip.
The abrahamic religions creation stories state that the first human, Adam ate of the fruit of the tree of knowledge and apparently became self aware, a bit like a child growing up. Well ironically something did change 75,000 years ago but it did not involve a talking snake and a magic tree, something changed when relatively physically weak Homo Sapiens as compared against the likes of Homo Neandetheral’s that had similar sized brains or even compared against the more ancient Homo Erectus, something changed that finally allowed Homo Sapiens to successfully start waves of migrations OUT of Africa that continue to this very day!
I’m gonna be talking about an interesting article that bill hoelter wrote today it’s called can you handle the ugly truth? and he examines the price action of gold on Friday which was a very illiquid day for gold on the Comex because it was a half they knew it was. You know the day after Thanksgiving most people most participants are away on holiday in the States and the rest of the world, so they don’t really trade too much gold…
The day after Thanksgiving in recent times has become known as “Black Friday,” a day where retail businesses who have been in the red recoup losses while profitable firms widen their income margins. The day is also a supposed boon for consumers where goods are significantly discounted and new products are first displayed.
The Establishment has long since been a promoter of Black Friday, encouraging Americans, with often patriotic rhetoric, of their duty to frequent shopping malls and the like despite economic conditions or safety concerns from either domestic unrest or international threats.
In Part 1 of this article I discussed the catalyst spark which ignited this Fourth Turning and the seemingly delayed regeneracy. In Part 2 I pondered possible Grey Champion prophet generation leaders who could arise during the regeneracy. In Part 3 I focused on the economic channel of distress which is likely to be the primary driving force in the next phase of this Crisis. In Part 4 I assessed the social and cultural channels of distress dividing the nation. In Part 5 I examined the technological, ecological, political, military channels of distress likely to burst forth with the molten ingredients of this Fourth Turning, and finally in this final part, our rendezvous with destiny, with potential climaxes to this Winter of our discontent.
We are now in the seventh year of this Fourth Turning. A famous quote from the seventh year of the last Fourth Turning portended the desperate, bloody and ultimately heroic trials and tribulations which awaited generations of our ancestors. What will be our rendezvous with destiny?
Think of “market internals” as the blood pressure and insulin levels of the financial world. They operate below the surface, frequently unnoticed, but over time they have a big say in the health of the patient.
And right now they’re pointing to a heart attack.
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Bull Market
Intermediate trend – SPX has resumed its uptrend in order to complete the last phase of the bull market.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
The EUR/GBP is often a neglected pair when we look at activity in the currency markets, as alternatives like the GBP/USD and the EUR/USD tend to receive most of the market headlines. But there are some potentially significant implications for the current activity that is being witnessed in the EUR/GBP, and this sets up some interesting trading possibilities for forex traders in these areas.
Black Friday is a big and usually good trading day for the retail sector; however, for gold prices it was a punch on the nose. Gold suffered a loss of $14.30 to close at $1056.10/oz, its lowest level since early 2010.
It’s been almost 50 months since the gold traded at the dizzy heights of $1900/oz back in August 2011, to the delight of every gold bug on the planet. However, since then it has been a slow grind south with rally after rally proving to be just another head fake. Gold has now lost $845.00 or 44.47% of its value in dollar terms, since peaking back then.
In Part 1 of this article I discussed the catalyst spark which ignited this Fourth Turning and the seemingly delayed regeneracy. In Part 2 I pondered possible Grey Champion prophet generation leaders who could arise during the regeneracy. In Part 3 I focused on the economic channel of distress which is likely to be the primary driving force in the next phase of this Crisis. In Part 4 I assessed the social and cultural channels of distress dividing the nation. In Part 5 I’ll examine the technological, ecological, political, and military channels of distress likely to burst forth with the molten ingredients of this Fourth Turning, and finally in Part 6 our rendezvous with destiny, with potential climaxes to this Winter of our discontent.
Three weeks ago I warned my subscribers that a Mars aspect on November 12th (Mars conjunct Venus in Libra) was indicating an explosive situation ahead, including possible terrorist activity. That very same week on November 13th, the Paris attacks occurred. We have an even more explosive Mars situation beginning on December 6th (Mars square Pluto/Neptune) and again on December 10th (Mars opposite Neptune). Mars entered Libra on November 12th and doesn’t leave that sign until early January. Mars is ruled by Aries, which is opposite the peace loving sign of Libra. Mars is conjunct Venus until Dec 4th. Venus is ruled by Libra, so the conflict continues.
On Tuesday, Turkey shot down a Russian warplane that was carrying out military operations against jihadi groups in Northern Syria. The downing of the Su-24 fighter jet is part of a broader plan by the administration of Turkish President Tayyip Recep Erdogan to topple the secular government of Syrian President Bashar al Assad and to establish “safe zones” on the Syrian side of the Turkish-Syrian border. Erdogan needs the safe zones to provide a sanctuary for the militant extremists who are the footsoldiers in his war against Syria. The downing of the Russian fighter is a desperate attempt by Erdogan to incite a reaction from Russia that will draw either NATO or the United States deeper into a conflict which has dragged on for 4 and a half years and killed 250,000 people.
The market started the holiday shortened week at SPX 2089. The market rallied to one point below the recent rally high at SPX 2097 on Monday. Then declined, helped by a gap down opening, to SPX 2070 on Tuesday. After hitting that low in the morning the market rallied to SPX 2094 late Tuesday, and then traded in a narrow range to end the week at SPX 2090. For the week the SPX/DOW were mixed, the NDX/NAZ were mixed, and the DJ World lost 0.2%. Economic reports for the week were solidly positive. On the uptick: Q3 GDP, Case-Shiller, personal income/spending, durable goods, the FHFA, new home sales, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: existing home sales, GDPN, and consumer confidence/sentiment. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by monthly Payrolls, the FED’s Beige book, and the ISMs.
How black would you like your Thanksgiving Friday slash weekend? Many Americans don’t even appreciate the term, or the events, at all anymore (or so they say), but the idea of getting what you don’t need, or want, on the cheap, will still prove irresistible. But then, when all of your desires have been fulfilled, food wise and gadget wise, and you’re still feeling empty, maybe we can help and offer a sweeping redefinition of the term Black Friday.
The Key Principle of this market analysing discipline we call Chartology: What makes the markets go up and down and sideways are investors emotions.
From the little guy trading on his laptop to some big hedge fund manager that has an office full of people telling him what to do. The sum total of everyone’s psychology and conviction is what creates the many different chart patterns we are constantly searching for. Take for example the principle of Reverse Symmetry, how a stock goes up is often how it comes back down. Something one needs to look for when you’re analyzing a chart for the purpose of discerning the next probable move. It doesn’t make any difference what time frame you’re looking at either. This is the reason, when you have a parabolic rise in a stock, you’ll see a very similar decline which many times is faster than when it went up. The reason for this is because the stock spent very little time consolidating the impulse move, only taking the time to form very small consolidation patterns which don’t have the staying power of a big consolidation pattern. There is nothing to offer support once the reversal takes place.The conviction (psychology again) of the market players is not there.
If the end is not near, it is certainly nearer. We are not calling for an end, for that is up to the market. All we, or anyone can do is observe developing market activity and make a determination as to when a trend is changing. The market always provides that information, and quite accurately as to timing, so there is no need to guess when that time might be. By patiently waiting, there is no risk in getting in too soon. The market is cluttered with people and large losses that tried to “beat the market” by getting in too soon, anticipating a change that has not yet developed.