SPX May Rally, But Weakness Remains

The SPX Premarket is running higher this morning and the best Wave analysis I can give is that the Wave [ii] correction may not be over. This may comport with the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday with a statement, but no press conference on Wednesday.

The trendline of the Broadening Top offered a support area for a bounce. The target for this retracement may be in the range of the 61.8% level at 2141.01 or as high as Intermediate-term resistance at 2147.58, which is also the 78.6% retracement level.

Blame Government, Not Markets for Monopoly

When Time-Warner announced it planned to merge with another major communications firm, many feared the new company would exercise near-total monopoly power. These concerns led some to call for government action to block the merger in order to protect both Time-Warner’s competitors and consumers.
No, I am not talking about Time-Warner’s recent announced plan to merge with AT&T, but the reaction to Time-Warner’s merger with (then) Internet giant AOL in 2000. Far from creating an untouchable leviathan crushing all competitors, the AOL-Time-Warner merger fell apart in under a decade.

Divergent Themes in Late 2016

Despite the arrogance, hubris, and lying (obviously – its election season!), we have never seen a cycle that has be more absent in terms of policy details worthy of analysis. Outrageous claims about job creation, making America strong, and so forth are issued, but there is no substance. We have tried on numerous occasions to find enough specifics to even perform cursory analysis and it is just not there. It is very reminiscent of Nancy Pelosi telling America in 2010 that if they wanted to read the healthcare bill they had to pass it first. This is what passes for economic jurisprudence in the Republic the founders gave us all those years ago.

Will FBI Director Comey’s October Surprise Derail Hillary’s White House Bid?

Having closed his earlier investigation into Hillary’s use of her private email server for classified State Department documents without bringing charges, dismissing indictable evidence, it’s hard imagining a shift of agency policy now.

So what’s going on? Is FBI Director Comey trying to save face, even at this late stage, having tarnished the reputation of the agency and himself. The fullness of time will show what he has in mind.

Stock Market Reluctant Selling

Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: The long-term trend is up but weakening. Potential final phase of bull market.
SPX Intermediate trend: The uptrend from 1810 continues, but it has entered a corrective phase which could extend into November.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Hillary Emails Disaster Sees Trump Jump 29% in Betting Market Odds, Can He Win?

A day on from the breaking of the Hillary Emails bombshell and the dust is settling in the betting markets to reveal a market jump in Trumps favour by 29%, that saw betfair’s Trump price recover from an clearly unwinnable 6 to now stand at 4.3. Is it enough to win the election? We’ll 4.3 is still substantially away from where Trump stood just before the 1st Presidential debate at 2.88, in advance of which I had concluded that given the trend trajectory at that time that Trump despite being behinf in the polls and the betting markets WOULD win the election given the anti-establishment Brexit factor.

Stock Market, Precious Metals: the Month Ahead

The astrological themes going forward surround around Neptune which rules lies, deceit, secrets, radicalism, illegal activities and fraud.  Mars (war tensions: think Russian naval movements into the Mediterranean) is also implicated, especially early in the month of November surrounding the dates of November 1-4. Gold could see a big move up around Nov 3-4. GDX could rally to around 26.00.

Halloween Money Saving – How to Make a SCARY Pumpkin Lantern for Kids!

For get buying any expensive gear or toys. Instead here’s my easy to follow fun low cost money saving activity to do with your kids on Halloween, which is to make a scary pumpkin lantern! I’ll show you how in this easy to follow step by step guide –
1.Choose a large pumpkin
2.Use s sharp knife to cut off the top
3.Dig out the insides, with a spoon and / or your hands. This is the toughest!
4. Use a marker pen to draw a simple outline of a face on the pumpkin. Eyes, Nose, Toothy Mouth.
5…. Watch the video!

Comey Hillary Emails bombshell – Throw Huma Under the Bus?

There is so much in innuendo and guesses and biased opinion floating around on this ‘morning after’ the Comey bombshell that the only option we have is to read and watch a ton of stuff and see what sticks. One thing that definitely should stick was published late last night by Paul Sperry for the New York Post.
He scores a solid and massive point that looks as damning for the FBI itself (or at least the superiors), as it does for Hillary Clinton. It is, in that regard, perhaps telling that one of the alleged reasons whispered for FBI director Jim Comey to come forward on Friday is that he feared details of the probe would otherwise be leaked to the press.

SPX Stock Market Downtrend Continues

The market started the week at SPX 2141. After a gap up opening on Monday, and a SPX 2155 high, the market pulled back into Wednesday hitting 2132. Another gap up opening on Thursday took the market to SPX 2147. But another pullback dropped to the SPX to 2119 on Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW mixed, and the NDX/NAZ lost 0.95%. Economic reports for the week were again mixed. On the downtick: consumer confidence/sentiment, new home sales, durable goods, and the WLEI declined. On the uptick: Case-Shiller, FHFA housing, pending home sales, Q3 GDP, plus weekly jobless claims declined. Next week will be highlighted by the FOMC meeting, the ISMs and monthly Payrolls. Best to your week!

Washington Prepares For EMP While Internet Under Attack Since Transfer to the UN

Remember how we pondered whether the internet would be shut off (or highly censored) upon being transferred to the UN on October 1st?  Just a few weeks later, large swathes of the internet went down. Coincidence or trial run?
We’ll get into that below.
Beforehand, however, there have been a number of new “Executive Orders” straight from the e-pen of Barack O’Bomber in the last few months of a “very strange” variety.

A Loaf of Bread, A Gallon of Gas, An Ounce of Gold

Kelsey Williams writes: The average cost for a loaf of bread in 1930 was ten cents ($.10). The average cost for a gallon of gasoline was also ten cents. With gold priced in U.S. dollars at $20.00 to the ounce, you could at that time purchase two hundred loaves of bread or two hundred gallons of gasoline (or some combination thereof). Twenty dollars of paper currency OR one ounce of gold valued at $20.00, usually in the form of a U.S. Double Eagle ($20.00 gold coin, legal tender), were equal in “purchasing power”.

BEA Estimates US 3rd Quarter 2016 GDP Growth to be 2.91%

In their first (“preliminary”) estimate of the US GDP for the third quarter of 2016, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the growth rate was +2.91%, up +1.49% from the prior quarter.

Most of the reported improvement in the headline number came from a +1.77% quarter-to-quarter gain in inventories, a +0.96% rise in exports, and a +0.39% uptick in governmental spending. Offsetting those improvements was an aggregate -1.41% reduction in the headline number from softening consumer spending on both goods and services. Fixed investments remained in contraction at a -0.09% annualized rate.