Just one week in office, President Trump is already following through on his pledge to address illegal immigration. His January 25th executive order called for the construction of a wall along the entire length of the US-Mexico border. While he is right to focus on the issue, there are several reasons why his proposed solution will unfortunately not lead us anywhere closer to solving the problem.
The chart below explains why I now believe we drop down into February 6th to the 2202 SPX level. The next few days may be choppy as we form a bear flag around the rising trend line. SoLunar turn days ahead include Jan 31, Feb 2, Feb 4-7 and Feb 10. Mercury squares Uranus on Jan 31, and Jupiter on Feb 2.
From Regime Change Ploys to Accelerated Economic Development
While the Obama White House prepared plans for regime change in the Philippines, President Trump is working on an assertive strategy in Asia. Meanwhile, President Duterte is accelerating the country’s economic growth – dramatically.
After the election triumph of President Rodrigo Duterte, the Philippines has initiated a series of economic reforms to accelerate development, decentralise governance and a tough but controversial struggle against corruption and drugs.
President Trump’s recent comments on Mexico and building a wall should give gold investors optimism, says Daniel Ameduri, cofounder of Future Money Trends.
President Trump’s recent open display on Twitter regarding Mexico and the wall should give gold investors a surge of optimism.
Over the next year, it’s highly likely that we will see trade wars erupt with the U.S. and several of its major trading partners, like Mexico, China and the EU.
As all the alarm bells ring continuously that the Russian Federation is the cause for the latest cold war, the actual risk for a hot conflict or an intentional brinkmanship of worldwide proportions should focus on the real enemy of humanity. The Brexit campaign was about more than just leaving the European Union. Likewise, the Trump movement is about a great deal more than just keeping Hillary Clinton from the oval office. Formerly the nation-state was the organizational format for government. Europe emerged from the dark ages to carve out kingships and spend centuries of warring with mostly bloodline relatives. When the bonds of feudalism loosened and economic advancement expanded the enlightenment of human thinking altered the political landscape. Notions of democratic principles germinated into ushering aside Kaisers, Czars and Kings. The popular vote in a strange ritual came to be known as an election, was culturally adopted as registering the popular will of the people.
Fund manager John Hussman is always good for dramatic charts. Here’s a recent one:
The forex market accounts for trillions worth of transactions on a daily basis, which makes it one of the most liquid markets to participate in. The EUR/USD currency pair accounts for most of those transactions but that does not make the pair immune to the rigorous volatility experienced amongst the exotic currency pairs.
Due to less liquidity, currency markets involving less popular pairs tend to be more volatile than their more popular counterparts. However, as demonstrated in the chart below, the EUR/USD pair, which is one of the most popular currency pairs in the Forex market has been very choppy of late. At least, when you look at it from the perspective of the hourly chart.
Did Gold find a Trading Cycle Low last Friday? Perhaps. Silver was definitely leading the way as it often does at bottoms. But Silver also delivers many head-fakes and with the USD is due for a new Trading Cycle bounce, Gold will likely move lower next week.
My first chart on the USD, shows it is deep in its timing band to find a DCL or short term Trading Cycle Low. Thursday may well have been the TC Low I was looking for. If so, to confirm a new Trading Cycle the USD should close above the 10ema and then test/break my Red down trend cycle line.
This is a quick heads up for what could prove turn out to be the start of the stocks bear market of 2017. Those who have followed my analysis will know that after having ridden the bull for nearly 8 years, that following the election of Trump and the resulting rally right to the very edge of Dow 20k, that I concluded early December that it was the time to start distributing stocks holdings accumulated during the life time of the of the bull market, specifically seeking to reduce my stocks portfolio holdings by at least 50% as the Trump Reset looked set to soon usher in a bleak period for stock prices for much of 2017.
My intermediate and longer term technical set-up work on 10 year U.S. Treasury YIELD argues that benchmark yield is in transition from a 35 year Bear Market (dominant downtrend) into a multi-year Bull Market (dominant uptrend).
From 1981, when 10 year yield peaked at 15.84% amid concerns about rampant, un-containable inflation and stagnant growth ("Stagflation") precipitated initially by the 1973 OPEC Oil Embargo, benchmark yield steadily and relentlessly declined to a post-Financial-Crisis 2016 low at 1.32% (see Charts 1 and 2).
As Tesla fires up itsUS$5-billion battery gigafactory to mass produce lithium-ion batteries in a historical turning point, lithium prices are set to explode, there has never been a better year to be a lithium company.
Tesla began mass production of lithium-ion batteries in the first week of January 2017, and by the end of the year it will have led to a doubling of global battery production capacity. By 2018, Tesla predicts it will churn out 35 gigawatts of batteries per year. It’s a massive amount that surpasses more than what the rest of the world combined produces.
In 1917 the War Industries Board (WIB) noted that the United States was deficient in certain minerals of great importance to war making and self defense. A pre-World War II list of materials contained a total of 29 materials: 14 were strategic materials that ‘must be based entirely or in substantial part on sources outside the United States.’ There were 15 critical materials that would be easier to source, perhaps even domestically, than the strategic materials.
The 1939 Strategic Materials Act authorized US$100 million to purchase strategic raw materials for a stockpile of 42 strategic and critical materials needed for wartime production.
Donald Trump’s trade policy is likely to spark higher consumer price inflation, and that has ramifications for gold and silver prices. Regardless of where investors stand regarding the president’s plan to make Mexico “pay” for the border wall, if he is successful in getting Congress to impose a hefty tax on imports it will mean higher prices for things. A tax on goods from China could be even more inflationary.
In this Weekend Report I’m going to show you some updated charts on the US dollar which has been in a bull market since the low in 2011. It’s hard for a lot of investors to admit, but until the charts change the bull market continues. A bull market is characterized by a series of consolidation patterns forming one top of the next, until the last pattern is a reversal pattern which reverses the bull trend. The old expression, the trend is your friend, also applies to the US dollar as well. Until the US dollar negates the series of higher highs and higher lows on an intermediate term basis, we have to assume the bull market is in tact.
Lets start by looking at a daily line chart for the US dollar which shows the horizontal trading range beginning back in March of 2015. The breakout topside of the horizontal trading range took place a little over 2 months ago in November of last year. After the initial breakout there was the initial backtest which could have been the beginning of the next impulse move up, but the US dollar stalled out a month later and is currently backtesting the top rail around the 100 area again.
On January 4, 2017, the biggest manufacturing development since Henry Ford’s Model T assembly line was powered on…
And investors should pay careful attention…
Because, with this quiet flip of a switch, the energy markets have now been transformed.
After many false promises and one false start, it is becoming evident that 2017 will be the year the Federal Reserve finally begins down the road towards interest rate normalization. Therefore, it is likely that Ms. Yellen will cause bond yields to rise this year on the short-end of the yield curve. In addition, soaring debt and deficits, along with the lack of central bank bond-buying, should send long-term rates much higher as well.
Wall Street soothsayers, who viewed every Fed rate cut as a buying opportunity for stocks, are now busily assuring investors that the potential dramatic and protracted move higher in bond yields will be bullish for stocks as well.
SPX made an 8.68 point gap down this morning and continued its decline to challenge Short-term support and the 2-hoour mid-Cycle support at 2268.22. Those that “took a chance” of that happening by going short last week may breathe a sigh of relief.
SPX has an aggressive sell signal that is not yet verified by the VIX. However, the decline is sharp and steady. Additional confirmation comes beneath the mid-cycle support.
If pleasures are greatest in anticipation, just remember that this is also true of trouble. –
Throughout 2016, we stated we did not expect much from Gold, and we stuck to this forecast, even though many experts went out of their way to report that Gold was ready to soar to the Moon or even to the next Galaxy. In fact, since 2011, we have continuously said that until the Trend turns positive, it would be best to play other lucrative markets, such as the general equities market, the US dollar, etc. During this time several experts stated that Gold was ready to surge and some issued insane targets ranging from $20,000-$50,000. Under no circumstance can we ever see Gold going to $20,000 or $50,000 and even if drank a whole bottle of scotch or any other toxic compound it would still be very hard to visualise such a target. Issuing such targets is perfect for fear mongering, and we find that tactic to be unpleasant and distasteful.
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : On Jan. 20, Donald Trump became the 45th president of the United States. For Trump (as with every president before him), all that he said up until that point consisted of promises.
But now, the focus must shift… from what he will do, to what he is doing. (Subscribe to my free weekly newsletter, This Week in Geopolitics, and stay informed on the most important geopolitical developments)
I was in Washington, DC, on Inauguration Day.
That gave me the opportunity to set up a few meetings with members from Trump’s transition team (many of whom read my free weekly letter, Thoughts from the Frontline).
During those talks, I gained some insight into what the first 100 days, the first six months, and the first year of the Trump administration might look like.
Here’s a summary of my impressions.