Whilst in Britain, inflation focus is on the surge in prices following the BrExit vote that triggered a 20% drop in sterling which is slowly but steadily feeding its way through the supply chain and heralds a nightmare 2017 for already distressed retailers such as Tesco, Britain’s biggest retailer that is literally facing a crisis which I have been covering in a series of videos the latest of which follows a BBC investigation into its ‘fake’ shelf prices duping customers into buying products at expired offer prices.
SPX has declined beneath its trendline and made a 47-66% retracement of its initial decline. It appears that it is now entering a third wave at a sub-minute or Micro degree. There is a lot of empty space to Short-term support at 2321.87. We may add a short position here.
A further decline beneath its earlier low at 2358.96 gives us further confirmation.
Yesterday was just another period of back-and-forth movement for gold, silver, the USD Index and even the general stock market – but not for precious metals mining stocks. Gold stocks and silver stocks plunged very visibly – there are very important implications of this move and they are not bullish.
Let’s take a closer look at the charts (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com), starting with the GDX ETF (proxy for both gold and silver stocks).
The correction in the markets is coming. The markets will correct in the short term, which will allow them to move much higher in 2017. The short-term indicators of market momentum are overbought. The trend indicators are clearly still BULLISH!
President Trump’s cuts and his pro-business attitude have been sending U.S. stocks into new record high territory. This is a clear indication that investors are looking to the White House for inspiration. The SPX Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite Index are trading at all-time highs. They are extending the rally that began when President Trump was elected.
You could perhaps say that this is part 4 in a series on -America’s- peak wealth, even if it was never intended to be such a series; it just happened. First, in a February 18 essay about declining economic growth, “Not Nearly Enough Growth To Keep Growing”, I said “..the Automatic Earth has said for many years that the peak of our wealth was sometime in the 1970’s or even late 1960’s”.
That prompted a reply from long-time Automatic Earth reader Ken Latta, which he turned into an article a few days later which I published on February 23 as “When Was America’s Peak Wealth?” Ken reasoned that America’s peak wealth was sometime in the late ’50s to early 60’s.
The USD is in the limelight again today. It has failed to better the February 15 high at 101.75, giving USD a sharp Wave 2 correction last week. Yesterday it bounced off Intermediate-term support at 100.73, but was unable to even match its 50-day Moving average at 101.37. This morning’s high was 101.22. The Cycles Model suggests the next Master Cycle low may be due on March 8, but could extend as much as another week beyond. A Pi date occurs on March 13, which matches up with a possible low in SPX as well.
How to breach limitations of conventional market forecasting
In this new interview, Wayne Gorman, the head of our Educational Resources department, explains — based on his 30-year experience as a Wall Street risk manager, trader and analyst — how Elliott waves help you get “ahead of the game.”
It’s impossible to plan for unexpected expenses, so those caught by surprise with breakdowns of white goods or even the necessity to replace a car will likely be hard-pressed to cover the cost at short notice. Fortunately for consumers who may not have a large enough nest-egg to dip into, there are an abundance of interest-free purchase credit cards to choose from that can help spread the cost.
I’ve been doing a multipart series on the proposed tax reforms in Thoughts from the Frontline (subscribe here for free).
In part two, I talked about what I like about the Better Way proposal. In part three, I pretty much eviscerated the border adjustment tax (BAT).
I think it has the real potential to create a global recession. You’ll need to read the series to see why, but a lot of it has to do with simple game theory.
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN AND JACOB L. SHAPIRO : US Secretary of Defense James Mattis met with defense ministers from other NATO member countries in Brussels on Feb. 15. He had a message to deliver from the Trump White House.
The meeting was closed, but some of Mattis’s comments were released to the media: “America will meet its responsibilities, but if your nations do not want to see America moderate its commitment to this alliance, each of your capitals needs to show its support for our common defense.” He added, “America cannot care more for your children’s security than you do.”
The probability that a real estate bubble may burst in China is rising. The financial sector heavily depends on real estate, which in turn exposes the entire Chinese economy to systemic risk. This link means that a downturn in real estate could soon spread to other areas of the Chinese economy if banks face liquidity shortfalls.
The border adjustment tax is disruptive by its very nature. (I’m writing a series of articles about the good, the bad, and the ugly of this tax reform in Thoughts from the Frontline. Read Part 1 here).
In their defense, Paul Ryan and House Ways & Means Committee Chair Kevin Brady know everything I just said and probably agree with much of it. They believe the BAT’s negative effects will disappear quickly due to currency flows.
Donald Trump’s presidency is a real nitro boost for the future of the biotech sector in the U.S., says Tom Beck, editor of Portfolio Wealth Global.
Donald Trump’s presidency is a massive boost to all industries, and is a real nitro boost for the future of the biotech sector in the U.S.
With 80 million baby-boomers looking to stay young and vital for a very long time, you should be making your move, and market-beating returns will be occurring from the large-cap stocks and in the small-cap sector even more so.
Wave (v) reached equality with Wave (i) at 2370.56. That, with the VIX now back over its 50-day Moving Average, suggests the rally may be over. For safety’s sake you may wish to wait until SPX is back beneath its trendline at 2365.00, but I wouldn’t point fingers if at least a partial short position is taken.
She tried and failed twice. Does she have another run in mind?
Reports suggest she may launch a TV talk show, featuring her as host, perhaps intending it to be platform for a third presidential campaign.
She considers herself party leader in exile, likely seeks revenge for losing to Trump. A TV show would be a way to bash him and serve as a self-promotion vehicle.
Gold prices are up more than 11% since bottoming last December. Their gains last week took the gold market right up to its 50-week moving average. In 2015, attempted rallies reversed at the 50-week moving average. Could this level once again serve as a barrier to further price advances?
Either way, long-term gold bulls shouldn’t sweat this particular technical level. Major bull markets need to pull back and reconsolidate periodically.
The World Bank just released a telling report entitled “Trade Developments in 2016: Policy Uncertainty Weighs on World Trade”. Though they deflect the problems in global trade to areas such as excessive regulatory initiatives and policy uncertainty (which is true), what is to be found buried in the appendix are the two un-annotated charts below. I suspect the World Bank didn’t compare them directly (they are shown separately) because it would cast a spotlight on an even larger political ‘football’.
How does global trade ship ~10% more trade volume but receive ~12% less revenue over a 5 year period? The answer has traditionally been significant improvements in productivity. However, the productivity numbers by country don’t even come close to supporting such a premise.
According to some analysts there are emerging signs of life in the UK savings markets, so as the tax year draws to a close I take a look at if the Cash ISA market is finally starting to offer some hope to Britain’s savers after a near 5 years of a catastrophic downward death spiral in interest rates, one of being ripped off by the tax payer bailed out banking crime syndicate that for the duration has continued to bank bonuses on artificial profits engineered by the Bank of England in an attempt at recapitalisng the bankrupt banks all whilst the savers continue to suffer and pay the price in terms of loss of purchasing power of savings by means of sub inflation interest rates.
The next confluence of Fibonacci retracements is at 2,382 and is our price target for SPX but last Friday was a 21-day cycle high so something’s gotta give here. A 6mo cycle high was due last week, too.
Lindsay’s 107 day interval points to a tradable high no later than today.
Challenger banks are causing a storm in the fixed rate bond market, with especially the highest rates in the market seeing an increase. The top one-year fixed rate bond has increased to 2.00%, up by 0.60% since January and the first time in 10 months a one-year fixed rate has stood at 2.00% or higher.