Gold suffered heavy selling in early March leading into the Fed’s latest rate hike. Speculators frantically dumped gold futures ahead of the Fed’s meeting as implied rate-hike odds soared. This is nothing new. This key group of traders has long feared Fed-rate-hike cycles, convinced they are the mortal nemesis of zero-yielding gold. But this view is highly irrational, as history proves gold actually thrives in rate-hike cycles!
The Federal Reserve’s primary and dominant tool for setting monetary policy is its target for the federal-funds rate. Commercial banks are required to maintain reserve balances at the Fed, with necessary levels fluctuating daily based on each bank’s underlying business activity. So banks with surplus reserves can lend them on an overnight basis to other banks running deficits through the federal-funds market.
Until now, the Brexit had mostly been a succession of public statements, declarations of intent, veiled threats and wishful thinking. But today, the British government made the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union manifest by officially invoking Article 50 of the EU treaty and delivering formal notification of its departure from the Continental bloc, the first member ever to do so. This started the clock on negotiations over the terms of the divorce and their future relationship, which will leave both the United Kingdom and the European Union considerably changed.
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : What makes South America stand out is that it looks like a large island. Oceans split it from others by great lengths.
Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean make a divide between South America and the US. Plus, it is split by the Amazon rainforest and Andes Mountains to form two “islands.”
There’s been a lot of media hype over China’s ongoing military buildup in the South China Sea. But as always, the truth lies beyond the headlines.
Chinese action has so far been largely contained to two island groups: the Spratly Islands and the Paracel Islands.
You saw big moves in forex last year — and 2017 should be no different.
Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses silver’s recent price performance and why he believes precious metals are in alignment for a major ascent.
“Every stock market bull out there whether in New York or London or Mumbai or Beijing is in a drunken myopia of elevated expectations and deviated denial scrambling and scratching and pleading for assurances that ‘it is truly different this time.'”
Notwithstanding that oil demand has increased for over 150 years, it will eventually stop increasing. If oil demand were to reach an actual peak, then the top might be easier to predict. As it stands, the forecast models of demand are likely predicting peak demand far later than it will be.
Last week the American political establishment was shaken to its foundation when the Republican Party leadership withdrew the American Health Care Act (AHCA) just before the vote was to be taken on the floor of the House of Representatives. Besides being a most unusual procedure, it exposed a fundamental split in the country,reflected not merely in Congress but within the Republican Party. GOP purists, represented by the House Freedom Caucus, demanded more significant roll backs in socialized medicine that were contained in the Ryan plan. Their refusal to back the plan, after years of promising complete repeal, doomed the bill.
We are witnessing the demise of the world’s two largest economic power blocks, the US and EU. Given deteriorating economic conditions on both sides of the Atlantic, which have been playing out for many years but were so far largely kept hidden from view by unprecedented issuance of debt, the demise should come as no surprise.
The debt levels are not just unprecedented, they would until recently have been unimaginable. When the conditions for today’s debt orgasm were first created in the second half of the 20th century, people had yet to wrap their minds around the opportunities and possibilities that were coming on offer. Once they did, they ran with it like so many lemmings.
SPX futures challenged mid-Cycle support at 2362.84 in the overnight session, but have bounced back above it as I write. We await the breakdown beneath that level followed by the Lip of the Cup with Handle at 2356.00 and the Broadening Wedge trendline at 2350.00.
‘Three wise men’ are warning that the next financial crash is coming and that one of the ways to protect and grow wealth in the coming crash will be to own gold.
The men who have recently warned are Jim Rogers (video below), Martin Armstrong (blog below) and Tony Robbins (video below). Each come from somewhat different backgrounds and are respected experts in their respective fields.
It’s fair to say that the EU referendum, and subsequently Brexit, is already having a major effect on UK businesses; and it will continue to do so throughout the whole process.
– UK investors buy gold bars as demand surges 39% in 2016
– Brexit Day sees Article 50 triggered and pound weakens
– “Brexit nerves” see “Brits hoard gold” reports WSJ
– End of 44 year relationship with closest economic partner
– May sets Brexit clock ticking in letter to Tusk
When you hear the word "gambling", Las Vegas may be the first destination that pops into your mind. However, you might be shocked to learn that while the United States is one of the world’s largest gambling markets it’s not the largest in every aspect of the industry.
Although the Fed is in the rate hike cycle, USD rally started to lose momentum early this year when market started to realize that monetary policy divergence started to narrow. ECB has started to talk about rate hikes, while China started to tighten monetary policy by raising money market rates early last month. The Fed also sounded less hawkish in their last rate hike as they forecasted only three rate hikes this year and no Fed members agreed to hike rate four times.
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,410, and profit target at 2,200, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year’s all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
With a 5 wave looking advance from 138.57, there are now enough gyrations to suggest that wave [v] could be completed, a strong reversal back below 142.00 is needed to support further downside, although if a peak is in place for wave [v], we need to see a strong break back under 138.57 to confirm wave [v] is completed, as a 3 wave pullback that stays above 140.00, likely favors further upside for wave [v], but I am counting the idea as a completed move for wave [v], so a strong reversal under 142.00, then 140.00 is the preferred route.
The top for the first half of 2017 probably just hit.
Markets do not react to what everyone knows. Markets react to surprises. And the surprise today is that the Trump administration will not be able to implement rapid reform.
Since election night, the stock market has assumed that President Trump would somehow repeal Obamacare, reform the tax code, and announce a massive infrastructure project almost immediately.
Since hitting a record-low of $177 in January 2015, Bitcoin is up almost 600%.
On March 2, 2017, it reached a new high of $1,268 per unit—thus surpassing the price of an ounce of gold for the first time ever.
So, what’s the driving force behind this parabolic rise?
The stock market indices had a solid session for tech stocks, but not so for biotech’s. The indices were mixed at the closed with the Dow down all day.
Net on the day, the Dow was down 42.18 at 20,659.32. The S&P 500 was up 2.56 at 2361.13, just a couple points off the high and 9 points off the low. The Nasdaq 100 was up 23.06 at 5430.27, 3 points off the high and 25 points off its low.