Ominous developments in East Syria have drawn the United States and Russia into closer proximity increasing the likelihood of a violent confrontation. The Trump administration has embarked on a dangerous plan to defeat the terrorist militia, ISIS, in Raqqa. But recent comments by US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson suggest that Washington’s long-term strategy may conflict with Moscow’s goal of restoring Syria’s sovereign borders. Something’s got to give. Either Russia ceases its clearing operations in east Syria or Washington agrees to withdraw its US-backed forces when the battle is over. If neither side gives ground, there’s going to be a collision between the two nuclear-armed adversaries.
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : In the last G-20 meeting, its members agreed to drop the forum’s commitment to free trade at the insistence of the United States. That agreement was reached at one meeting and was contained in a single document—such agreements and documents are far from written in stone.
In spite of that, it must be regarded as a historical moment. Excluding the free trade commitment from the agreement marks a fundamental shift in a concept that has been central to global economics for more than a generation.
The “labor force” from which we get unemployment statistics includes only those people who are either working or wish to be working.
It ignores the retired, those in school, the disabled, and nonworking spouses—as well as those who are not interested in working.
Decades ago, John McCain was in Asia trying to kill people he didn’t know while living off the largess of money (taxes) stolen from hard working people in the US.
In any other reality but our current one he’d be considered a thieving mass murderer.
Unfortunately, in our current reality, some people call him a “war hero”.
SPX is having an “inside day.” The most likely formation appears to be the Triangle. It is “buying time” and is not likely to be complete until the close of the day or early tomorrow. It appears to be finishing Wave (d) now and Wave (e) is likely to decline to the Broadening Wedge trendline at 2355.00. Using the Triangle formula, SPX is likely to make a final surge from the trendline to 2365.00. The hourly mid-Cycle resistance is at 2364.48 and the 61.8% retracement is at 2364.13. This cluster of resistance may be pretty formidable, but act as attractors until its time.
Our research is showing critical Fibonacci extensions are in place for US Major Markets that may be foretelling of a massive market correction. Part of our research is to search for and study events and resources that are a bit abstract. One component of this research is to identify critical price levels and early warning triggers from abstract price data. The major US indexes and most individual all showing price advanced over the past years and many are showing extended price rallies since the US Presidential election on November 8, 2017. Yet, none are as foretelling as our “US Custom Index”.
As Britain counts down to triggering Article 50 later today the SNP fired another missile at Westminister Tuesday in their continuing program towards the subversion of the settled BrExit will of the British people by voting to demand that another Scottish Independence referendum be held before the BrExit negotiations are finalised with the EU. This despite the fact that in the run up to Scotland’s September 2014 Independence Referendum the Scottish Nationalists from Alex Salmond and Nichola Sturgeon down promised that they would abide by the results of the referendum, declaring that it was at least a once in a generation decision if not once in a life time decision.
Everywhere I look I see talk of a major $USD bull market being underway. I see this coming from as well as so-called “investment gurus.”
This is odd… because the $USD is DOWN against every major currency thus far in 2017.
I’m not making this up. The $USD is DOWN against the Yen, the Euro, the Swiss Franc, even the British pound.
As we have repeatedly warned since mid-December, the “Trump trade” was based on hype.
This is not to say that President Trump will not succeed in generating economic growth… it IS to say that whatever growth is coming will do so in 2018 as opposed to the GDP growth of 5% that the market seemed to believe would be hitting in early 2017.
In yesterday’s alert we emphasized that the breakdown in the USD Index should not be trusted as it was not confirmed and there were several good reasons to think that it would not be confirmed. The breakdown is already invalidated and – again, as discussed yesterday – this is actually a strong bullish sign. Is the decline in the USD Index over and is the big slide in the precious metals sector just around the corner?
SPX has completed a double zigzag from yesterday’s low. The rally has retraced 48.5% of the decline from 2390.01. It may have one zigzag left to finish a 50% retracement to 2356.13 or thereabouts. However the decline from 2390.01 and its retracement have gone exactly 60 hours, or 4.3 days at the 12:00 pm high. In other words, it may be complete, or nearly so at this time.
International news services now report that Japan’s Toshiba Corporation (9502.T) is preparing to make a chapter 11 bankruptcy filing for its Westinghouse Electric subsidiary as soon as this Monday, March 27. For most of our readers this news evokes little surprise. This is merely another chapter of a slow moving financial and accounting train wreck involving nuclear design and construction firm Westinghouse and its troubled Japanese parent, Toshiba. But like an old, leaky garbage scow there is much to clean up in its wake.
As a new tax year approaches, savers may well be readying their cash to invest in a new ISA, but the latest research by Moneyfacts.co.uk reveals why savers should still consider maximising their Personal Savings Allowance (PSA) for bigger returns.
Since April 2016, savers have been given an individual Personal Savings Allowance to earn a portion of savings income or interest tax-free, with basic rate (20%) tax payers given a £1,000 allowance and higher rate (40%) taxpayers getting £500. This momentous change means that now most taxpayers (estimated at 95%) no longer pay tax on their savings interest.
"It will be a formidable challenge for Britain’s next prime minister to make an economic, diplomatic and political success out of Brexit. Or, to set the bar at a more realistic level, to contain the damage." – Andrew Rawnsley
Much has been, and continues to be written in the press about Great Britain and her extraction from the European Union (EU), and by the looks of things, it is turning out to be a very messy divorce. The bad news is that Theresa May, the British Prime Minister, has not triggered Article 50. For the uninformed and confused among us, Article 50 is the formal notice that the UK needs to give the EU that she intends to withdraw from the European Union.
BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will attend a meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump April 6–7. Tillerson will skip an April 5–6 meeting of NATO foreign ministers.
This is the first time a US secretary of state will miss such a meeting since 2002.
We’ve touched on this before, but there’s a strong sense in much of the developed world that we’re headed for harder times. Deficits increase. Unemployment rises. The benefits of the future have been unevenly distributed throughout society.
It is not just in voting patterns that you can sense malaise. You can see it in the economic numbers and in sociological research.
From Wikipedia… Musa Keita I (c. 1280 – c. 1337) was the tenth Mansa, which translates as “sultan” (king) or “emperor”, of the wealthy West African Mali Empire.
During his reign Mali may have been the largest producer of gold in the world at a point of exceptional demand. One of the richest people in history, he is known to have been enormously wealthy; reported as being inconceivably rich by contemporaries, “There’s really no way to put an accurate number on his wealth” (Davidson 2015).
The stock market indices had a very unusual day, with huge gaps down, they broke support, in the first fifteen minutes showed extreme volatility, and then took off and ran from 5316 NDX all the way up to 5583 by midday. The S&P 500 jumped from 2322 to 2344, backed and filled, and then tried to rally again. Only in the last fifteen minutes they backed off.
In Part One of this article I analyzed the similarities of Isaac Asimov’s Foundation Trilogy to Strauss & Howe’s Fourth Turning, trying to assess how Donald Trump’s ascension to power fits into the theories put forth by those authors. Now I will compare Trump to the most interesting character in Asimov’s classic – The Mule.
Britain’s largest retailer, near triple the size of its nearest competitor Sainsbury manages to dodge a bullet by being fined £129m as part of a DPA (Deferred Prosecution Agreement) with the SFO (Serious Fraud Office) for its 2014 false accounting scandal.
Which means that Tesco avoids a formal prosecution and that the fine+ investor compensation is about half what it could have been with some estimates ranging as high as £500m, perhaps the SFO took Tesco’s distressed state into consideration as the super market giant had been in meltdown, it’s stock price having collapsed by 60% from its high and having lost £10 billion in annual revenues to it’s competitors.