Investing From Complexity to Chaos, From a Trickle to a Flood

Michael E. Lewitt writes: As a volatility trader, I loved seeing stocks drop 2% last week after having risen 3%. But as a credit trader and student of market behavior, I know all too well that this type of volatility is a forecast of stormy seas ahead.
Markets were disturbed last week by more evidence that the economy is weak, in spite of the fact that a steady stream of lousy economic news this year has done little to prevent stocks from reaching new highs. With first quarter GDP increasingly likely to come in at well below 1% – a number that certainly can’t be blamed on the weather alone – investors are now starting to sweat.