The perennially-optimistic crowd on Wall Street never lets the truth get in the way of a good story. So whenever the stock market doesn’t move their way, they come up with a myriad of excuses to explain the fall. The members of what my good friend Peter Grandich likes to call, "The Don’t Worry Be Happy Crowd" appear in the main stream media and try to deflect attention away from the truth.
What these cheerleaders are unwilling to admit is that the Federal Reserve’s myriad of QEs and manipulations of interest rates have been pumping air into the stock market. Therefore, every exit attempt from its manipulations has, and will, begin a painful (yet necessary) deflation of this bubble.
The consequences of the coming bull market in the US dollar, which Iâ€™ve been predicting for a number of years, go far beyond suppression of commodity prices (which in general is a good thing for consumers â€“ but could at some point threaten the US shale-oil boom). The all-too-predictable effects of a rising dollar on emerging markets that have been propped up by hot inflows and the dollar carry trade will spread far beyond the emerging markets themselves. This is another key aspect of the not-so-coincidental consequences that we will be exploring in our series on what I feel is a sea change in the global economic environment.
The latest Moneyfacts Personal Pension and Annuity Trends Treasury Report, has revealed how the annuity market endured a perfect storm during Q3 2014 as a combination of plummeting gilt yields and a marked slowdown in demand following the 2014 Budget took their toll on annuity rates.
Unbeknown to most of Tesco’s remaining customers as they continue their weekly shops at its well stocked mega-stores across Britain is that Tesco is not just at the edge of a cliff but has actually fallen off it and is in a state of free fall. So whilst customers may soon start to look forward to splurging on their Christmas shopping which undoubtedly will buy the likes of Tesco time during a period when the stock price could hit bottom and bounce. However, as experienced investors well understand that which is termed a ‘dead cat bounce’, as literally even a cat thrown off a cliff will eventually hit bottom and bounce and so that will likely be the experience for Tesco investors over the coming months as they mistakenly assume a rallying stock price is a sign of recovery.
Tom Naysburn writes: Financial and derivative trading is an interesting but violent game, full of love, fear, greed, loathing and ecstasy. There you go, I have owned up, and if your still wondering, it is emotional.
When I started in the City of London, apart from all the fun and learning, I was most impressed by a pervasive rule, that “your word was your bond”. Deals were done with counter parties who you may not have personally known, but when the phone went down and the ticket written up, you knew the deal was done. Your word was your bond, and by extension your firm’s word, was coveted at all costs. To rescind on a deal was infinitely more costly than the deal itself and consequently it did not happen. This principle of trust was honourable, good and tremendously impressive and was carried over into everyday dealings. It remains with me to this day.
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 1,975 and profit target at 1,875, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: bearish
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: bearish
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Eric Margolis writes: NEW YORK – Things seemed crazy in the US and Canada last week, with a shooting on normally tranquil Parliament Hill in Ottawa and a grisly hatchet attack on two New York City policemen.
Add in an American doctor who returned to the big city from Ebola-stricken West Africa and proceeded to run around all over town – from the Bronx to the west Village to a bowling alley in Brooklyn – just as he was coming down with the dreaded sickness. New Yorkers are a pretty tough bunch, so panic was mild, but in this crowded city, it was still a big scare.
The EU and ECB claim they conducts their stress tests and Asset Quality Reviews to restore confidence in the banking sector. That is easier said than done. The problem with the confidence boosting game is that if the tests are perceived as not strong enough, nobody knows which banks to trust anymore. And, on the other hand, if the tests are sufficiently stringent, there’s a genuine risk not many banks are found healthy.
There’s the additional issue of quite a large group of banks having been declared ‘systemic’ by their mother nations, which is of course equal to Too Big To Fail, and, in layman’s terms, ‘untouchable’.
As the end of the latest quantitative easing program approached, everyone was wondering if history would repeat in the form of a stock market correction that terrified the government into another round of debt monetization. And right on cue, volatility surged in late September, sending US stocks down by about 6% by mid-October.
In 1968 the government of Canada decided to openly admit Americans seeking to avoid being drafted into the US war on Vietnam. Before, would-be immigrants were technically required to prove that they had been discharged from US military service. This move made it easier for Americans to escape President Johnson’s war machine by heading north.
Although a founding member of NATO, Canada did not join the United States in its war against Vietnam. The Canadian government did not see a conflict 7,000 miles away as vital to Canada’s national interest so Canada pursued its own foreign policy course, independent of the United States.
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – Bull Market
Intermediate trend – Intermediate correction (primary wave IV) underway.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
Many authorities have said it: banks do not lend their deposits. They create the money they lend on their books.
Robert B. Anderson, Treasury Secretary under Eisenhower, said it in 1959:
When a bank makes a loan, it simply adds to the borrower’s deposit account in the bank by the amount of the loan. The money is not taken from anyone else’s deposits; it was not previously paid in to the bank by anyone. It’s new money, created by the bank for the use of the borrower.
Roger McKinney writes: The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act focused the attention of Americans on government regulation as few issues have. However, they should have paid attention decades earlier because states have been eating away like termites at freedom in the healthcare insurance market for decades. The PPACA adds little to existing state regulations. States began dictating to insurance companies what to cover, whom to cover, when to cover them and how much they could charge in the 1950s. Massachusetts, home of Romneycare, the template for Obamacare, enacted the first state mandate in 1956 requiring insurers to cover mentally and physically handicapped children.
Anyone who knows him personally would attest that David Gordon is a troublemaker. He lived up to this label with a recent review of the new book by Steve Forbes and Elizabeth Ames. Gordon took them to task for referring to money as a measure of value, analogous to a ruler or clock; Gordon cited the authority of Ludwig von Mises while rejecting such a view. In a previous post here at Mises Canada, I then defended Gordon from the reply of John Tamny. Yet now I see that economist Marc Miles has jumped in the fray, also thinking that Gordon is ignorant of basic economics.
Since the end of the recession in 2009, investors have borrowed a record amount of money to finance their stock acquisitions. According to the Financial Times, margin debt on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) peaked in February, 2014 at $466 billion and has only recently dipped slightly lower. That’s $85 billion more than 2007 at the peak of the bubble. (Below: Margin debt tends to trace the trajectory of the markets fairly closely, although it’s a poor indicator of a market “top”.)
Michael E. Lewitt writes: That was quick!
Shrugging aside concerns that a week ago sent markets reeling to near correction territory, all major indices bounced back strongly this week and made it seem as though the October 15 panic never happened….
The strong decline on the FTSE over the past few weeks may have come as a surprise to many traders but for us it was expected. It really could not have gone any better for members. I have been warning members for a number of weeks to expect a strong reversal and a crash style move, although we have been preparing for a strong decline; members have also been trading the upside, as before members could trade the downside we need to see the 6900 area tested.
Writing in his Economics Blog, Martin Armstrong asks a loaded question. How do you hide something that is already in plain view, whether its the fact oil prices have to fall, the US doesn’t run or own a “unipolar” world, or climate changes isn’t anything to do with global warming? You hide it by exaggerating it and anything related to it to the point that all or certain critical parts of the story or “narrative” becomes so extreme that you or anybody can convert it to a conspiracy theory. Whatever happened, it was all designed and planned and executed by very clever and probably evil persons long in advance. So you can go back to sleep, now.
The desperation of retailers grows by the day. I head to Wal-Mart and Giant in Harleysville every Sunday morning at 7:00 am. to do my weekly grocery shopping. I go to Wal-Mart at opening to avoid the freaks we see weekly on the People of Wal-Mart post. The workers at Wal-Mart are only a small step above the customers. They can barely communicate, rarely look you in the eye, and generally act like they are prisoners in an asylum.
I’m in winter/bad times ahead prep mode. I had a load of fire wood delivered yesterday which I wheelbarrowed to the back yard and stacked with my already decent sized stack. Last week I took an empty propane canister back to Wal-Mart to replace it with a full canister. That would give me three full propane tanks. I left the empty tank outside next to the propane cage and went in to pay. The old lady cashier with the gravelly smoker voice told me she would call for someone to get me a new tank.