The Next Interest Hike is Just Around the Corner

Shortly after the release of the most recent nonfarm payroll numbers, the pundits were quickly talking up the potential for another Fed interest rate hike at the September FOMC. The BLS reported that the July nonfarm payrolls were up 255,000 jobs, when they expected only 180,000 to 185,000. The June nonfarm payrolls were also revised upwards. Unemployment (U3) was unchanged at 4.9%. Despite the seemingly strong job numbers, the monthly nonfarm payrolls remain highly questionable. Further, other economic data has been anything but robust, with the recent Q2 GDP numbers coming in at half the level expected. The most recent trade data was also lower than expected. Canada reported job losses in July of 31,200, well below expectations, and the equivalent of the US nonfarm payrolls being down 300,000.